Developing scenarios to understand risk
Lecture
Publication date:
10 March 2020
Last updated:
18 December 2023
Author(s):
Professor Danny Ralph, Academic Director of the Cambridge Risk Centre, University of Cambridge, Oliver Carpenter, Research Assistant of the Cambridge Risk Centre, University of Cambridge
In their lecture, Professor Ralph and Oliver aimed to cover understanding the broad applications of scenarios to explore risk, to explore common characteristics and differences in scenario typologies and how to apply common frameworks to develop relevant and effective scenarios.
In this Insurance Institute of London (IIL) reinsurance lecture Professor Danny Ralph, Academic Director of the Cambridge Risk Centre, University of Cambridge, and Oliver Carpenter, Research Assistant of the Cambridge Risk Centre, University of Cambridge, talked about risk within a different range of possible future scenarios and a tool to cope with uncertainty, especially when risks are not well understood, or cannot be quantified or identified.
The aim was to provide a systematic method for thinking creatively about a variety of possible futures, rather than attempting to accurately predict individual outcomes. Scenarios are increasingly used by practitioners, decision makers, and other stakeholders in insurance to better understand the characteristics and consequences of unknown, uncertain, or unexpected future events, and support planning and decision-making strategies to address them. This session marked the launch of two scenario best practice guides - for the insurance industry and the disaster risk reduction community - exploring development frameworks and key considerations.
By the end of this lecture members would have gained an insight into:
- The definition and types of scenarios
- How can they be used to aid strategy and decision making
- Where to find supportive information to help a practitioner develop scenarios
Duration: 39 minutes
This document is believed to be accurate but is not intended as a basis of knowledge upon which advice can be given. Neither the author (personal or corporate), the CII group, local institute or Society, or any of the officers or employees of those organisations accept any responsibility for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of the data or opinions included in this material. Opinions expressed are those of the author or authors and not necessarily those of the CII group, local institutes, or Societies.